Iran, the day after. For a new Iranian policy of the European Union
The analysis of the world that will come after the coronavirus involves bringing together heterogeneous knowledge and perspectives. After a first note published on the transformations of the energy sector, the Groupe d’études géopolitiques today publishes a second note, proposing a fundamental reflection on the Iranian policy of the Europeans, signed by Pierre Ramond and Leopold Werner with a foreword by Michel Duclos.
Iran, the day after. For a new Iranian policy of the European Union.
The present note proposes a review of the Iranian policy of the Europeans and an aggiornamento of its ambitions based on three hypotheses :
- the American policy of maximum pressure has proven its ineffectiveness, even its dangerousness ;
- particularly isolated and weakened, the Iranian regime will be pragmatic enough to accept new negotiations as soon as they can lead to an improvement in its political and economic situation ;
- Iran’s destabilising activities are a legitimate security concern for Europeans ; they call for new and more ambitious negotiations to obtain a reduction in such activities.
Therefore, we suggest reconnecting the different dimensions of Europe’s Iranian policy, which for the time being deals too autonomously with the issues of nuclear proliferation, the ballistic missile programme and Iran’s regional influence. We outline how Europeans could defend a new regional security architecture in which Iran would have an interest in normalising the different dimensions of its power, in exchange for the international recognition it lacks today.
- On the military level, Iran’s access to Western European weapons technologies would be conditional on Tehran abandoning its military nuclear and ballistic proliferation programmes, without any expiry clauses. We propose the establishment of a United Nations monitoring body to verify Iran’s compliance with the abandonment of its ballistic missile programme.
- On the diplomatic level, Europeans could provide Iran with guarantees of its return to the international financial system, in exchange for ratification of the Palermo Convention, the FATF recommendations and the opening of an open dialogue with Tel Aviv.
- Finally, on the geopolitical level, Europe could defend the controlled institutionalisation of Iranian influence in Iraq in order to complete the security services reform in that country. We also propose, like others before us, the establishment of a crisis prevention and management mechanism’ to promote dialogue and de-escalation in the event of new regional tensions, particularly in the Straits of Hormuz and Iraq.
Faced with a volatile agenda, only a solid strategic course, based on an objective analysis of Europe’s interests in its relations with Iran and on different diplomatic formats, will enable European diplomacy to pull through for the « day after » : after the coronavirus, after the American and Iranian presidential elections, after the end of the JCPOA, after the intensification of internal protests within the regime, after the death of the Guide.
To cite the article
Pierre Ramond, Leopold Werner, Iran, the day after. For a new Iranian policy of the European Union, Apr 2020,
In the Interregnum, an interview with Wolfgang Ischinger
My first series of questions concerns the French election and the European dynamics that could be impacted by it. My first question is about the re-election of Emmanuel Macron. In your view, what could it mean for the prospect of Franco-German relations? You wrote in your book, World in Danger we have a common opportunity … ContinuedRead the article
A Conversation With Jonatan Vseviov
During her State of the Union address, Ursula von der Leyen said that “one of the lessons of this war is that we should have listened to those who know Putin”. She obviously meant Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but she also meant Poland and the Baltic states. Why do you think these voices were not … ContinuedRead the article
Geopolitics: A Methodological Introduction
Geopolitics as we want to make use of it is an analytical tool. Its purpose is to place factual data at the heart of inquiry and arrange them in a meaningful order, so as to offer – or at least attempt to offer – a key to better understanding how the world we live in … ContinuedRead the article
Towards A Mediterranean Community For Renewables
Building a new community process with the southern shore of the Mediterranean: Energy transition and geopolitics in the age of war ecology Introduction The geopolitical situation generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has radically changed the geo-energetic context in which the EU will have to position itself in the short, medium and long term. In … ContinuedRead the article