Regional elections in Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, and Umbria, October-November 2024

Regional election in Liguria, 27-28 October 2024

Incumbent center-right Genova mayor Marco Bucci was nominated as the right-wing coalition’s candidate, consisting of Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, ECR), the Lega (PfE), Forza Italia (EPP) and some civic lists. The centre-left supported the candidature of former minister Andrea Orlando from the Democratic Party (PD, S&D), backed by the Green and Left Alliance (AVS, GUE/NGL-Greens/EFA), the Five Star Movement (M5S, GUE/NGL), Azione (RE) and other civic lists. Among the nine contestants, it was clear that the main competition would take place between these two candidates. As expected, all civic lists and parties with no representation in the national parliament remained below 1% of the vote.

The electoral campaign was relatively uneventful and centred on key national political themes. Bucci’s campaign was mainly focused on defending against the political scandals involving the previous right-wing administration. Indeed, the regional election had to be called earlier than expected following the resignation of the President Giovanni Toti due to corruption investigations (Parodi, 2024). Bucci did not seem an obvious choice to be the lead candidate of the right-wing coalition both due to his age (65) and health issues (Il Post, 2024). After internal disagreements on alternative figures (Edoardo Rixi, Ilaria Cavo), PM Giorgia Meloni herself convinced Bucci to accept this role.

This regional election was an important test for the campo largo, the grand coalition of all left-of-centre parties. This experiment at the regional level could have sent signals about the opportunity and possibility to keep together the mainstream left-wing parties (mostly PD), the more radical M5S and the centrist Azione and Italia Viva. Eventually, however, M5S leader Giuseppe Conte vetoed the entry of Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva in the coalition, curbing thecampo largo’s ambitions. Because industries are important to the Liguria region, support from centrist lists could have helped garner the valuable support of industrialists.

The results were heavily impacted by the low voter turnout, which was below 46% compared to nearly 53.5% in 2020. Bucci won with 48.77% of the vote, while Orlando received 47.36%, a difference of 8,400 votes. Orlando won Genoa, La Spezia, and Savona, three of the four major cities in the region, but failed to secure enough votes to conquer the region. This was partly due to the right-wing coalition’s predominance in smaller municipalities and outside urban areas. Orlando’s victory in Genoa was particularly significant, as Bucci had been mayor since 2017 and was re-elected in 2022. However, this result was not enough for the centre-left to win the regional government. Its poor overall performance is partly due to the M5S’s unsuccessful showing: the M5S received only 4.5% of the vote. The M5S’s losses counterbalanced the strong performance of the Democratic Party (PD), which received 28.4% and was the largest party. Another important factor influencing the results was the possibility of a split-ticket vote. Voters giving their preference for Bucci as president while voting for centre-left lists in the regional council have helped the right-wing candidate garner half a percentage point – a non-negligible advantage in such a close contest.

Regional election in Emilia-Romagna, 17-18 November 2024

An early election also took place in Emilia-Romagna following the resignation of incumbent president Stefano Bonaccini due to his election to the European Parliament after two terms leading the regional Democratic Party (PD). The candidate of the left-wing coalition, including AVS, M5S, Azione, and some civic lists, was Michele De Pascale. De Pascale had been the mayor of Ravenna since 2016, where he was supported by a coalition that included the M5S and has a long history of political activism within the PD ranks. On the opposite side, the right-wing coalition – FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia – supported Elena Ugolini. Ugolini was formally considered an independent because she never held political office with any party. However, she collaborated with ministries and commissions for educational reforms. Although she was relatively unknown, de Pascale had more visibility, including through Bonaccini’s endorsement (Il Sole 24 Ore, 2024).

The campaign was dominated by the topic of reconstruction following the floods of 2023-2024 (four major events in just over one year, see Armellini, 2024), as well as the maintenance of public services. De Pascale, the mayor of Ravenna, one of the areas hit hardest by the disaster, campaigned in the territory in an attempt to rebuild trust in political elites after delays in aid and reimbursements following the destruction. The right-wing coalition mainly criticized the incumbent administration for being too slow in reacting to the emergency and compensating for the damage. However, they were in a difficult position because they control the national government, which should have been in charge of distributing aid and enacting relief, reconstruction, and prevention measures.

Polls indicated that de Pascale was in the lead, with around 55% of voters supporting him. This was not unexpected in one of the regions of Italy’s “Red Belt”, a historically left-leaning area. The main source of uncertainty was turnout, particularly given the rage and disillusionment among flood evacuees. In the end, the results exceeded expectations, with de Pascale’s coalition reaching 56.7% of the votes, against just above 40% for Ugolini. Abstention was the second lowest since 1995 (the negative record being 2014, with less than 38% of turnout), with 46% of citizens showing up to the polling station. This casts a shadow over de Pascale’s victory. Geographically, the center-left won in the largest cities — Bologna, Reggio Emilia, Modena, and Ravenna — while Ugolini won in Piacenza and smaller municipalities.

The election was another attempt by left-wing parties to collaborate within the campo largo. Unlike in Liguria and Basilicata, this attempt proved fruitful in Emilia-Romagna, leading the coalition to victory. The internal balance remains tilted towards the PD, which received around 43% of the votes, while the M5S received around 3.5%. The right-wing coalition mirrored this, with FdI dominating at 23.7%. This time, the Lega had a particularly poor result at 5.3%, falling behind Forza Italia at 5.6%.

Regional election in Umbria, 17-18 November 2024

The regional elections in Umbria and Emilia-Romagna took place on the same days. In Umbria, the main contestants were Stefania Proietti (centre-left) and Donatella Tesei (centre-right). Since 2016, Proietti has been the independent mayor of Assisi and, since 2021, the president of the province of Perugia. In the broadest implementation of the campo largo to date, he was supported by PD, M5S, AVS, Azione, and Italia Viva. His opponent, incumbent right-wing president Donatella Tesei from Lega, was supported by FdI, Forza Italia, and other centrist lists. Umbria was formerly part of the “Red Belt” regions but was won by the right in the 2019 regional election. This occurred following the resignation of the incumbent left-wing president amid allegations of manipulation of public competitions in the healthcare system.

The election campaign focused primarily on public health and environmental issues, particularly those related to a waste-to-energy plant. Proietti, in particular, emphasized the incumbent administration’s poor decisions regarding healthcare cuts. This approach seemed to pay off in areas most affected by hospital and healthcare facility closures, where support increased. Prioritizing healthcare over other issues in the campaign also helped deliver a more cohesive image of the coalition. Some partners had expressed discontent after Proietti made personal statements about abortion and military support for Ukraine (Il Post, 2024b).

Unlike in Emilia-Romagna, the polls only suggested a small margin in favor of Proietti. As a result, the election outcome was far from certain. Still, the centre-left coalition prevailed with just above 51% of votes. Turnout, however, reached an all-time low of 52.3%. Proietti won in both provinces despite receiving a larger margin in the cities and bigger municipalities. As in Emilia-Romagna, PD was the most voted party (30.2%), followed by FdI (19.4%); the M5S suffered important losses (4.7%) but the biggest loser was the Lega (7.7%), which scored below Forza Italia (9.7%).

Despite the high abstention rates, Umbria and Emilia-Romagna proved the effectiveness of the campo largo strategy. Umbria is the second Italian region to switch from right-wing to center-left leadership under the Meloni government, following Sardinia in February 2024.

The data

Liguria

Emilia-Romagna

Umbria

References

Armellini, A. (2024, 20 September). Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region hit by new floods as storm moves west. Reuters.

Il Post (2024, 27 October). Chi e cosa c’è in ballo alle elezioni in Liguria. Il Post.

Il Post (2024b, 19 November). Il PD ha corretto in corsa la campagna elettorale in Umbria: e ha fatto bene. Il Post.

Il Sole 24 Ore (2024, 13 July). Who is de Pascale, the mayor of Ravenna who is picking up Bonaccini’s legacy. Il Sole 24 Ore.

Parodi, E. (2024, 26 July). Italy’s Liguria regional leader resigns after corruption probe arrest. Reuters.