Regional election in Sardinia, 25 February 2024

The local political context

The regional elections held in Sardinia on February 25, 2024, garnered significant national media attention for several reasons. Firstly, Sardinia was the only Italian region holding elections on that date. Furthermore, among the main opposition parties in the Regional Council, the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD) and the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, M5S), which had run separately in the previous regional elections, were negotiating to form a broad center-left coalition with a joint leadership, known as the “Campo largo” (“Broad field”). The prospect of a PD-M5S alliance, and, if successful, its replicability at the national level, captured the attention of political observers and commentators throughout Italy.

Beyond national implications, Sardinia’s electoral dynamics are traditionally heavily influenced by the peculiarities of its regional political system. Although this system tends towards bipartisanship, it has seen the presence of a significant third coalition in recent elections, represented by Renato Soru’s candidacy. Sardinia’s political system has historically been characterized by a combination of national parties and local political forces, with a strong tradition of autonomism and regionalism. For the past two legislatures, the PD has been the dominant center-left party, followed by the M5S, which, however, has had a more recent and less stable electoral history at the regional level. Other minor parties, such as the Progressives, the Greens, and other left-wing groups, complete the alliance. On the center-right, alongside national parties such as the League (Lega), Forza Italia (FI), and Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia,FdI), local forces like the Sardinian Reformers (Riformatori Sardi) and the Sardinian Action Party (Partito Sardo d’Azione, PsdAz) play an important role. The latter, a historic party of Sardinian autonomism, formed an alliance with the Lega in 2018, which brought Christian Solinas to the regional presidency in 2019. However, as will be discussed later, the 2022 national elections had already hinted at a shift in the center-right balance with the rise of FdI at the expense of the Lega and PSdAz. The Sardinian political landscape also includes numerous regionalist, autonomist, and pro-independence groups that have traditionally lacked cohesion and the ability to unite. Further complicating their situation is a proportional electoral system with a 10% threshold for coalitions and 5% for single-party lists. This has made it extremely difficult for smaller regionalist, autonomist, and pro-independence parties to gain representation in the Regional Council and to influence Sardinian politics.

The political offer and the electoral campaign

The regional elections in Sardinia were held within a polarized contest between the center-right and center-left, with Renato Soru’s candidacy representing a third coalition with the ambition of influencing the final outcome, and a fourth candidacy, that of Lucia Chessa, that was quickly identified as an outsider. The center-right and center-left coalitions mirrored the opposition and majority of the previous regional legislature. On the center-right, the outgoing government, led by Christian Solinas, was an expression of the pact between PSdAz and Lega. The main challenge to his re-election came from the center-left, particularly the PD-M5S alliance, which had matured during their shared opposition in the Regional Council and was formalized in the pre-election period.

The leadership of the center-left coalition was the subject of much discussion throughout the year leading up to the vote. As early as March 2023, following the congress of the Sardinian PD, its newly elected secretary, Piero Comandini, expressed openness to an alliance with the M5S (Carta, 2023). This culminated in a joint candidacy with Alessandra Todde, the M5S vice president and former deputy minister for Economic Development. However, the candidate selection process caused significant tension, particularly with Renato Soru, a former governor of Sardinia (2004-2009), secretary of the Sardinian branch of PD (2014-2016), and PD MEP (2014-2019) who opposed the lack of primary elections to choose the candidate. After the PD’s official decision to back Todde, Soru announced his independent candidacy. Accusing the PD-M5S bloc of following the directives of their respective national parties, Soru formed the “Sardinian Coalition” (Coalizione Sarda) breaking away from the “Campo largo” alliance. The diverse group ranged from pro-independence lists to lists linked to the Italian centrist parties “Action” (Azione) and“More Europe”(+Europa), as well as extreme left formations like the Communist Refoundation Party (Partito della Rifondazione Comunista).

On the center-right, the choice of a candidate was equally difficult due to the shifting internal political balance within the coalition. FdI, which was rapidly rising at the national level, supported the candidacy of Cagliari’s mayor, Paolo Truzzu, in contrast to the PSdAz-Lega bloc, which sought Solinas’ reconfirmation. After considerable internal friction, the long deadlock was eventually resolved by the national leaders of the coalition parties, who designated Truzzu as their joint candidate at the beginning of 2024. This marked the transfer of leadership within the Sardinian center-right from the PSdAz-Lega bloc to FdI.

The electoral contest also saw the candidacy of Lucia Chessa, the former mayor of Austis. Chessa ran on the Sardigna R-Esiste list and aimed to offer an independent proposal separate from the main coalitions.

Presidential candidates	Linked lists (names in Italian)
Lucia Chessa	Sardigna R-esiste
Renato Soru	+Europa – Azione con Soru Liberu Movimento Progetto Sardegna Rifondazione Comunista – Sinistra Europea Vota Sardigna
Alessandra Todde	Alleanza Verdi Sinistra Demos – Democrazia Solidale Fortza Paris Movimento 5 Stelle Orizzonte Comune Partito Democratico Partito Progressista Partito Socialista Italiano – Sardi in Europa Sinistra Futura Uniti Per Alessandra Todde
Paolo Truzzu	Alleanza Sardegna – Partito Liberale Italiano Democrazia Cristiana Con Rotondi Forza Italia Berlusconi – PPE Fratelli d’Italia Lega Salvini Sardegna Partito Sardo d’Azione Riformatori Sardi Sardegna al Centro 20Venti Unione di Centro Sardegna

At the programmatic level, the electoral debate in Sardinia focused on local issues such as energy, healthcare, and transportation, with the main candidates offering relatively similar proposals. All of the candidates criticized energy speculation on the island. Soru accused the national government of imposing its will on Sardinia (Ruffi, 2024), while Todde promised to put an end to the notion that Sardinia was an “Eldorado for renewable energy speculators” (Almiento, 2024). Similarly, Truzzu also spoke about protecting the landscape and the interests of Sardinians (L’Unione Sarda, 2024). Regarding healthcare, despite the criticisms directed at Solinas’ administration by the alternative center-right candidates, there was a general consensus on the need to successfully implement the 2020 healthcare reform rather than proposing a new one, with a focus on improving local-level healthcare. Transportation, another central issue in the campaign, saw widespread agreement among the main candidates on the importance of territorial continuity and strengthening the internal transportation network.

The real battleground, however, was the performance of the Solinas administration and his majority in the outgoing legislature. The center-right pushed for continuity, emphasizing the seriousness of their government action during the difficult period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite not supporting his re-election as regional president, the coalition defended the work of the Solinas administration, running a sober campaign centered on the need to continue the reforms already started. The center-left also highlighted the unity of their coalition despite Soru’s defection, positioning themselves as the only true alternative to the right. They criticized the inefficiency of the incumbent executive and the damage caused by its inability to pass laws and effectively allocate regional resources.

The other two candidates leveraged their roles as independents. Soru, in particular, adopted a more aggressive tone. He accused both the center-right and center-left of being subordinate to national political dynamics and presented himself as the only candidate truly focused on Sardinia’s issues.

Voters turnout and election results

The regional elections on February 25, 2024, saw a 52.4% voter turnout (758,252 out of 1,447,753 eligible voters), consistent with previous elections (2014: 52.3%, 2019: 53.1%). In Sardinia’s main urban centers, turnout was generally lower than the regional average, except in Cagliari (55%). The city with the lowest turnout was Olbia (47.9%). Across districts, there was a general decline in voter participation compared to 2019, except in Nuoro (Todde’s home province), where turnout increased by 3.3 percentage points.

Year	Election	Turnout (%)	Change (pp)
2024	Regional Council and Presidential elections	52.4	– 0.8
2022	Italian parliamentary elections	53.2	+ 0.1
2019	Regional Council and Presidential elections	53.1	– 12.4
2018	Italian parliamentary elections	65.5	+ 13.2
2014	Regional Council and Presidential elections	52.3	– 15.9
2013	Italian parliamentary elections	68.2	+ 0.6
2009	Regional Council and Presidential elections	67.6	– 4.7
2008	Italian parliamentary elections	72.3	– 5.6
2006	Italian parliamentary elections	77.9	+ 6.7
2004	Regional Council and Presidential elections	71.2

The race to the Presidency ended with a narrow victory for Alessandra Todde, who secured 45.4% of the vote, narrowly defeating Paolo Truzzu (45%) by just 3,061 votes. This made Todde the first female President of Sardinia’s Regional Council. Her success was largely attributed to the votes in the main urban centers, such as Cagliari and Sassari, where she garnered 53% and 53.3% of the vote, respectively. In Cagliari, Truzzu, the incumbent mayor, experienced a significant drop in support, receiving just under 25,000 votes (34.6%) compared to Todde’s over 38,000 votes (53%). This decline was attributed to the poor perception of his administrative performance. Overall, Todde won the districts of Cagliari, Carbonia-Iglesias, Medio Campidano, and Sassari, while Truzzu prevailed won Nuoro, Ogliastra, Oristano, and Olbia-Tempio. Renato Soru, on the other hand, failed to reach the 10% threshold, finishing with only 8.6%. This result left him without representation in the Regional Council. Similarly, Lucia Chessa finished with 1% of the vote.

Presidential candidate	Votes (n)	Votes (%)
Alessandra Todde (center-left)	334,160	45.4
Paolo Truzzu (center-right)	331,099	45.0
Renato Soru (other – center-left)	63,666	8.6
Lucia Chessa (independent)	7,261	1.0

The election results revealed that the option for voters to split their votes between party lists and presidential candidates was key to Todde’s victory. She managed to garner approximately 40,000 more votes than the lists supporting her, while Truzzu received about 5,000 fewer votes than the center-right lists. This suggests, as supported by electoral flow analyses conducted by the Cattaneo Institute (Vassallo, 2024), that Todde successfully attracted votes from center-right and “third-pole” voters while Truzzu was penalized by vote-splitting, likely from voters disillusioned by Christian Solinas’ exclusion. Another important finding was that the center-right lists not only received more votes than the center-left lists, but also received more votes than Todde herself. Todde’s victory and her coalition’s success were due to the capacity of the center-left coalitions to take advantage of the incentives set by the electoral system, which awards the presidency to the candidate with the most votes and gives a majority bonus to their supporting lists.

Among the coalitions, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) solidified its position as the center-right’s dominant force with 13.6% of the vote, tripling its 2019 result. In contrast, parties that had previously led the coalition, such as the Lega, PSdAz, and Forza Italia, suffered significant setbacks. The weakening of these forces, especially the Lega-PSdAz duo that had been the driving force behind the previous government coalition, was further confirmed when PSdAz’s elected regional councilors switched to the Forza Italia group in September 2024, marking the disappearance of the Sardists from the Council.

On the center-left, the Democratic Party (PD) reaffirmed itself as the region’s leading party with 13.8% of the vote, surpassing even FdI by winning 11 council seats. Although the 5-Star Movement (M5S) has historically struggled in subnational elections – and obtained about 2 percentage points less in the 2024 Sardinian vote than in 2019 (7.7% instead of 9.7%) – it nonetheless managed to secure a significant number of seats, electing 8 councilors. Together, the PD and M5S had considerable influence over the distribution of executive offices within the new Regional Council. All six of the Council’s commissions were chaired by PD or M5S councilors.

Presidential candidate	Linked lists (names in Italian)	Votes (n)	Votes (%)	Change (pp)
Alessandra Todde	Partito Democratico	95,285	13.8	+ 0.3
	Movimento 5 Stelle	53,613	7.8	– 1.9
	Alleanza Verdi Sinistra	32,145	4.7	– 0.51
	Uniti Per Alessandra Todde	27,422	4.0	*
	Orizzonte Comune	20,984	3.0	*
	Partito Progressista	20,868	3.0	– 1.2
	Sinistra Futura	20,574	3.0	*
	Partito Socialista Italiano – Sardi in Europa	11,637	1.7	+ 0.42
	Fortza Paris	6,068	0.9	– 0.7
	Demos – Democrazia Solidale	4,692	0.7	*
Paolo Truzzu	Fratelli d’Italia	93,921	13.6	+ 8.9
	Riformatori Sardi	49,629	7.2	+ 2.1
	Forza Italia Berlusconi – PPE	43,892	6.4	– 1.6
	Sardegna al Centro 20Venti	37,950	5.5	+ 1.2
	Partito Sardo d’Azione	37,341	5.4	– 4.5
	Alleanza Sardegna – PLI	28,203	4.1	*
	Lega Salvini Sardegna	25,957	3.7	– 7.7
	Unione di Centro Sardegna	19,237	2.8	– 1.13
	Democrazia Cristiana Con Rotondi	2,110	0.3	*
Lucia Chessa	Sardigna (R)esiste	4,067	0.6	*
Renato Soru	Movimento Progetto Sardegna	23,872	3.5	*
	Vota Sardigna	10,830	1.6	*
	+Europa – Azione con Soru	10,577	1.5	*
	Liberu	4,993	0.7	– 1.14
	Rifondazione	4,534	0.7	+ 0.15

Conclusion

The Sardinian regional elections held on February 25, 2024 confirmed the persistence of a predominantly bipolar political system influenced by the electoral system. Alessandra Todde (center-left) won due to her strong support in larger cities such as Cagliari and Sassari, as well as internal divisions within the center-right that were exacerbated by split voting. This led to government alternation, which has occurred consistently in Sardinia since 2004, when direct elections to the office of Regional President were introduced.

Significant changes occurred within the coalitions. On the center-right, Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerged as the dominant party, while the Lega and Sardinian Action Party (PSdAz) experienced an electoral collapse. The Lega elected only one councilor, while the PSdAz lost relevance after Christian Solinas failed to secure renomination. Due to their low representation, the councilors from these parties merged into the Mixed Group. On the center-left, the Democratic Party (PD) confirmed its primacy, but the real novelty was the stable presence of the Five Star Movement (M5S) in the regional governing coalition. Despite the PD receiving nearly double the votes of the M5S, its representation in the Council does not fully reflect this difference. Up to now, however, the electoral collaboration between the PD and M5S seems to be working properly at the local level, with the “Campo largo” alliance successfully supporting the winning candidates in the 2024 municipal elections in major Sardinian cities like Cagliari, Sassari, and Alghero. The parties will be united again in support of their mayoral candidate in Nuoro in the June 2025 elections.

Finally, Renato Soru and his “Sardinia Project” recorded disappointing electoral results, stopping at 8.6% without obtaining representation in the Regional Council. This could mark the beginning of the movement’s decline, in a situation further complicated by the lack of elected officials and the increasing difficulty of having a significant impact on the regional political debate.

The data

References

Almiento, L. (2024, 27 January). Todde a Cagliari: «La Sardegna non sia l’Eldorado delle rinnovabili». L’Unione Sarda.

Carta, A. (2023, 28 March). Il leader del Pd punta al centro per vincere le Regionali 2024: “Solinas non classificato”. Sardiniapost.

Vassallo, S., Galli, E., & Bianchi, M. (2024, 28 February). Elezioni regionali 2024. Cosa dice il voto in Sardegna. Istituto Cattaneo.

Ruffi, M. (2024, 16 February). Soru: «Energie rinnovabili, stop alle speculazioni». L’Unione Sarda.

L’Unione Sarda (2024, 17 Feburary). Energia, Truzzu: «Individuare le aree per l’eolico e sconto in bolletta per i sardi. L’Unione Sarda.