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“After Assad, the time will come for Lukashenko”. A conversation with Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

The fall of Assad carries enormous repercussions beyond the Middle East — the speed and velocity in which the regime collapsed in ten days sends a message to authoritarian leaders. As someone who has led the resistance against Alexander Lukashenko since 2020, what are the ripple effects?

Dictators feel invincible… until they fall. Dictators survive on fear, and when fear disappears from the people, the apparatus and the army, they pay the price. In those critical moments, no one will come to save you. Not even your supposed allies because they know you are no longer in charge. These are not sincere relations — if you are no longer useful, they will drop you. 

For Lukashenko, who is an illegitimate dictator, there is a message coming from Syria: no matter how close you get to Russia — even if that means surrendering the sovereignty of Belarus to Moscow — Putin will not come to save you. In 2020, Moscow provided assistance to Lukashenko after the people rose up against him because he had stolen the election. But the circumstances back then were different. Today, Russia is under enormous pressure too. 

The case of Syria shows the people of Belarus that they should never give up, that they should never lose hope that one day the dictator will fall. Let me be clear: I want a peaceful transition for Belarus, the people want freedom, they want change, they want democracy. Sooner or later they will get it. But I also want to stress that Russia is not as powerful as some people like to think. What happened in Syria is important because it shows that to the world. No amount of propaganda can hide that.

Were you surprised that Assad sought refuge in Moscow? Is Russia the last resort for dictators?

Dictators have few friends, especially when they lose power. Putin couldn’t save Assad this time. The fact that Russia offered him refuge doesn’t surprise me. It’s not the first time, it probably won’t be the last if you look back at history. But I think it’s important to stress that Assad’s presence in Russia also symbolises a defeat for Russia. Putin wanted Assad to be in control in Syria, not in Moscow. 

Does his presence in Russia impacts Belarus?

I think this could become dangerous for Belarus. Putin sent Prigozhin to Belarus before he was killed, and he brought his thugs with him. It is dangerous for Belarus if we also become a home for dictators.

Russia appears to be retreating from what were once strategic positions, such as Syria, as the war in Ukraine drains its manpower, military resources and finances. How can this affect the balance of power between Minsk and Moscow?

I remember that ten years ago Assad was joking that he would never flee the way Viktor Yanukovych fled Ukraine. The signal this sends to Lukashenko is that, in a critical moment, no one is going to save you. And that is a powerful message. Even if you believe you have a network of backers, they will only support you for as long as you are useful to their interests. When I look at what happened in Syria, there isn’t a trigger, a specific moment, that topples the dictator. It is the result of circumstances coming together. Our task is to be prepared and wait for that moment.

It will happen. Our responsibility is to be ready when the circumstances align.

You have often said that you are convinced that Lukashenko’s time will come to an end. Has this given you hope that, beyond politics, as a Belarusian citizen, the end is near?

I cannot afford to lose this conviction. 

I see that the Belarusian people are not giving up — I can’t give up either. Lukeshenko knows that he has lost the support of the people. He lives in fear of his own people. Belarus will win this battle and Lukashenko’s regime will end too. I am inspired by the political prisoners in Belarus. I saw the pictures in Syria: people being tortured in several floors underground. That’s the thing about dictatorships. There is one level of brutality on the surface, but the worst is always hidden three levels below. I hope to see the day when we can release our political prisoners and reveal the extent of the pain this dictator has caused. The world needs to see that. I hope that the situation in Syria will also give new energy to our allies and democratic countries to support us and stay with us, even if it takes a long time and it’s not easy. Dictators don’t last forever, change can happen.

Donald Trump begins his second term in January. He has made it clear that the United States will not engage in international conflicts and wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. At the same time, the return of a more unpredictable and assertive America does not necessarily seem to explicitly favour Putin’s interests for the time being. What are the consequences for Belarus?

Like everyone else, I listened carefully to the statements made by President-elect Trump during the campaign. We all heard that he wanted to end the war in 24 hours. Now elected, it means that he  is determined to end the war soon. 

I understand that some have interpreted this as negative for Ukraine, there’s the idea that he could stop the flow of money and weapons, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I don’t think that his mandate will necessarily be negative for Ukraine. What I can say from my experience is that in the case of Belarus, we had four years of strong bipartisan support from the US government. In 2020, when President Trump was in the White House, he was the first leader to approve sanctions against Lukashenko after he rigged the election. He supported the protests and the people of Belarus. Donald Trump thinks in geopolitical terms. Our job now is to establish a working relationship, to reiterate the importance of Belarus to the US administration and to build a connection with the new Trump administration, which we have started to do.

A bad peace for Ukraine will have severe knock-on effects across the region. How concerned are you about a bad deal for Ukraine in a way that could further destabilize not just Kyiv but also any prospects of a democratic and peaceful transition of power in Belarus?

The fates of Belarus and Ukraine are linked.

Russia does not see Ukraine or Belarus as independent states. They want to pull us back into Soviet orbit. In Ukraine, Russia discovered the people were willing and ready to fight very hard. Ukraine will also be an opportunity for Belarusians. That’s why we have to convince the new Trump administration that Belarus is strategically important for the region. Without a free Belarus, there will be no peace and security in Ukraine. Lukashenko is a risk and a threat to the region and its neighbours — including Poland — and I believe that the Belarusian issue must be included in the talks on Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine cannot be resolved without the stabilisation of Belarus. Can you elaborate on that?

We demand the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, not only from Ukraine, but also from Belarus. We also demand the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from our territory. Belarus was used as a launching pad to attack Ukraine. But the people of Belarus have never been consulted, and I can guarantee you that Belarusians do not want to be involved in a war that is killing Ukrainians. These two conditions are necessary to make Belarus free of Russian influence. But we need strong support from our democratic partners. That is why I insist that the issue of Belarus cannot remain unresolved. 

Russia has suggested that Oreshnik missiles could be deployed in Belarus from 2025. Do you fear a serious escalation from Belarus and possibly a higher level of fighting from Belarus in Ukraine, which could also threaten the wider European security architecture? 

One possible scenario is escalation. As I said, Russia is using Belarus as a theatre of operations. This is a major threat to us. We are concerned that the country will become a consolation prize for Russia in the peace talks. We cannot allow that to happen. The international community must ensure that Belarus remains a sovereign state and not a bargaining chip in negotiations. Our country is no consolation prize. We cannot allow the occupation and Russia’s nuclear arsenal to become permanent. This is a security threat to our people, but also to the rest of Europe. 

The new von der Leyen Commission is finally up and running. What do you expect from the new leadership, including Kaja Kallas as top diplomat, in your campaign for a free Belarus?

Our situation is slightly different because we are not an EU candidate country but that doesn’t mean our cooperation should be any less important. The relationship we have developed is unprecedented for a non-member country. The EU has supported us during these difficult four years and I believe that the EU is committed to putting Belarus on a democratic course. My aim is to strengthen the relationship we have built and to convince our partners that bringing Belarus closer to the EU is in our mutual interest. The EU will also benefit from having a reliable, peaceful and partner country in its neighbourhood. 

It’s also important for the people of Belarus. One of the narratives that Lukashenko is pushing is that the Europeans don’t welcome us, but Russia does. His strategy is to make people feel isolated, cut off from the rest of Europe, so that Russia becomes our best and only friend. I worry about the effect this narrative can have, especially on the younger generations. They really need a European perspective for the future. We could lose a whole generation who will only know Belarus and Russia.

When it comes to Kaja Kallas in particular, some of your Eastern European partners have put a lot of faith in her as a top diplomat. She belongs to a younger generation and comes from the Baltics, which perhaps brings a vision and sensitivity when it comes to security and democracy. Do you agree?

People who grew up in what is often called the “post-Soviet” order know what it is to live under a dictatorship. They understand it. They have experienced tyranny, and they value democracy because they don’t take it for granted. That can make us more determined. Kaja Kallas also brings a very personal touch. She cares deeply about these issues. I think for her it goes beyond personal ambitions, it really is about doing the right thing. If you look at Ukraine and our situation in Belarus, it’s not just politics for her. 

The results of the recent elections in Romania have been cancelled and authorities fear a Russian-led campaign aimed to destabilize the vote and interfere in the outcome. Are European democracies too naïve and weak in the face of Russian aggression?

The first thing to understand is that Russia does not play by democratic rules – it has no respect for these rules, which are seen as weak and inconvenient. Moscow has time and is willing to sacrifice people. It controls the resources of the state, the courts, the police, the media. It is not a fair fight, but neither is the power of a dictatorship unlimited.

Democracies are stronger because there is a common purpose. A single dictator can fall quickly; a democratic system is harder to destroy. But democracies need to be strengthened. They must show more teeth. They can’t allow their public opinion to be poisoned on the Internet. There is a war on the battlefield as well as a war for people’s minds. In my view, democracies still have to make that shift, where they have to internalise that the world is not what it used to be and that this new world requires a lot more self-discipline. 

Belarus is due to hold new elections in January 2025, which the international community has condemned as a sham because they are neither free nor democratic. What role will you play?

The people of Belarus understand that this is not a real election. They know that they will be forced to go to the polling stations. Lukashenko will emphasise the participation but nobody will count votes, nobody will go with the real numbers, it is all fake. I fear people will be physically forced to go to vote which is why we are advising everyone to put in the ticket “against all”.

We are calling on our allies to declare the vote illegitimate in advance and to signal that the civilised world will not go back to business as usual with Lukashenko after this sham election. It is very important that everyone, absolutely everyone, says this. We have a strategic dialogue with the US, which under Trump did not recognise the 2020 election, and with the European institutions. We need the support of the international community so that Lukashenko understands that there is no path to normal relations for him and that the democratic process continues alongside civil society. Our partners have stayed with us for five years, we ask them to do the same again; stay with us for as long as it takes.

You had to flee Belarus, you were declared a traitor, your husband is still in jail and his future is uncertain. Will you continue the fight?

I take life one day at a time. I do not think in terms of five, ten years. I do not count my time in terms of days, months, years, I count in terms of doing the job. That is my duty. Our people are in prison. They are suffering. We have to keep working. We have to think outside the box and put more pressure. We can do a lot more. We have to be ready because the pieces can fall into place, suddenly there is an opening and the dictator falls. 

Our job is to be ready — and to make sure that our allies are ready too.