Elections in Europe: 2024
Scientific Council
Prof. Dr. Sylvia Kritzinger, Prof. Dr. Marc Swyngedouw, Prof. Dr. Michal Kubát, Prof. Dr. Marc Debus, Prof. Dr. Rune Stubager, Prof. Dr. Piret Ehin, Prof. Dr. Irene Martín Cortés, Prof. Dr. Hanna Wass, Prof. Dr. Bruno Cautrès, Prof. Dr. Pierre Martin, Dr. Florent Parmentier, Prof. Dr. Theodore Chadjipandelis, Prof. Dr. Goran Čular, Prof. Dr. Gábor Tóka, Dr. Lorenzo Castellani, Prof. Dr. Diego Garzia, Prof. Dr. Ainė Ramonaitė, Prof. Dr. Philippe Poirier, Prof. Dr. Jānis Ikstens, Prof. Dr. Mark Harwood, Prof. Dr. Jacek Wojnicki, Prof. Dr. Marina Costa Lobo, Dr. Sorina Cristina Soare, Prof. Dr. Maria Oskarson, Prof. Dr. Alenka Krašovec, Prof. Dr. Olga Gyárfášova, Prof. Dr. Arjan Schakel
Directors of Publication
Ramona Bloj, Gilles Gressani
Editor-in-Chief
François Hublet
Scientific Advisor
Dr. Nicolas Leron
Editorial team
Jean-Toussaint Battestini, Jean Cotte, Adrian Fraus, Charlotte Kleine, Mattéo Lanoë, Sofia Marini, Johanna Schleyer
Translator
Lauren Lever
External reviewers
Prof. Dr. Tito Forcellese, Prof. Dr. Olga Gyárfášova, Prof. Dr. Vít Hloušek, Malo Jan, Thomas Laffitte, Prof. Dr. Srđan Majstorović, Dr. Hugo Marcos Marné, Prof. Dr. Erik Miklin, Dr. Santiago Perez Nievas, Dr. Stefano Rombi, Sophie Suda, Dr. Constantin Wurthmann
Elections in the European Union
Presidential election in Finland, January-February 2024
Electoral context The Finnish presidential elections, held in January-February 2024, were characterized by both broader global political turmoil and specific hybrid security risks faced by Finland. Overall, the security and defense policy environment in Finland had changed significantly during the two years prior to the elections. Since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia … Continued
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Regional election in the Azores, 4 February 2024
Introduction In late 2023, early elections to the Azorean parliament were called following the rejection of the regional budget proposal for 2024. This ended the incumbent center-right coalition government ‘s term, one year before the regular end of its mandate. The Portuguese President of the Republic called early elections for 4 February 2024. The electoral … Continued
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Regional election in Galicia, 18 February 2024
On February 18, 2024, autonomous elections were held in Galicia, marking the beginning of the twelfth regional legislature. In this election, the People’s Party of Galicia (PPdeG) once again emerged as the leading political force, winning 47.39% of the vote and a total of 40 seats, thereby securing its ninth absolute majority since the beginning … Continued
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Regional election in Galicia, 18 February 2024
On February 18, 2024, autonomous elections were held in Galicia, marking the beginning of the twelfth regional legislature. In this election, the People’s Party of Galicia (PPdeG) once again emerged as the leading political force, winning 47.39% of the vote and a total of 40 seats, thereby securing its ninth absolute majority since the beginning … Continued
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Regional election in Sardinia, 25 February 2024
The local political context The regional elections held in Sardinia on February 25, 2024, garnered significant national media attention for several reasons. Firstly, Sardinia was the only Italian region holding elections on that date. Furthermore, among the main opposition parties in the Regional Council, the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD) and the Five Star Movement … Continued
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Regional elections in Abruzzo and Basilicata, March-April 2024
Context The regional elections in Abruzzo, held on March 10, 2024, and those in Basilicata, on April 21 and 22 (along with the Sardinian elections in February), were the first contests of a fairly large series in numerical terms, followed by elections in Piedmont in June and those in Liguria, Umbria, and Emilia-Romagna in the … Continued
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Parliamentary election in Portugal, 10 March 2024
The context of the 2024 legislative elections The Socialist Party (PS) emerged triumphant in the 2022 parliamentary elections, achieving a historic overall parliamentary majority. This result granted the party unparalleled control over the legislative agenda and significant leverage to implement its campaign promises. However, the socialist government witnessed a steady erosion of its popularity over … Continued
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Presidential election in Slovakia, March-April 2024
Introduction After President Zuzana Čaputová announced that she would not seek re-election in 2024, it was clear that Slovaks would have a new President. The election which took place on 23 March and 6 April was won in the second round by Peter Pellegrini, who defeated his opponent, long-serving diplomat and former foreign minister Ivan … Continued
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Local and regional elections in Poland, 7 April 2024
In April 2024, Poland’s right-wing opposition party defied predictions and secured the largest number of votes in regional authority elections, the key barometer of national support. Nonetheless, in spite of internal divisions over the abortion issue and concerns that it is prioritising settling scores with its predecessor over delivering on its election promises, the ruling … Continued
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Regional election in the Basque Country, 21 April 2024
Introduction The Basque party system is structured around two main axes of competition: the classical left–right ideological divide common to all Western political systems, and the identity or territorial dimension, often referred to as the center–periphery cleavage. Within this two-dimensional political map, a diverse array of electorally and parliamentary relevant political options have emerged since … Continued
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Federal and regional elections in Belgium, 9 June 2024
Introduction Political analysts could indulge themselves on the 9th of June 2024, since Belgium hosted no less than six separate elections. The results of these elections were meant to change the power balance on the national, regional, communitarian and European government levels. In the current note, we will discuss the results in the three main … Continued
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Local elections in Hungary, 9 June 2024
2024 was a significant election year in Hungary, with both European Parliamentary and local elections held on 9 June. The stakes were higher than usual for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz-KDNP government this time around. For the first time since 2010, a potential challenger emerged on the political scene: According to recent polls, … Continued
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Parliamentary and presidential elections in Romania, November-December 2024
Romania’s post-communist electoral history has been marked by remarkable chronological stability. Both parliamentary and presidential elections have consistently occurred at the natural conclusion of their respective electoral cycles. During this time, Romania held ten legislative and nine presidential elections. Following the volatility of the early 1990s, this pattern of regularity was further consolidated by a … Continued
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Parliamentary election in France, June-July 2024
The 2024 parliamentary elections are taking place in a special context, since they are the result of a dissolution declared by the President of the Republic immediately after the publication of the results of the June 9 European elections, which were particularly disappointing for the presidential majority, whose list received 14.6% of the vote, almost … Continued
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Regional election in Saxony, 1 September 2024
Background From 2019 to 2024, the Free State of Saxony was governed by a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU, EPP), Alliance 90/The Greens (Greens/EFA), and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD, S&D), the so-called “Kenya coalition.” For the first time since 1990, such a three-party alliance had become necessary in the historical … Continued
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Regional election in Thuringia, 1 September 2024
Introduction The second least populous of the eastern German states, Thuringia has gained a reputation as a laboratory for the rise of right-wing extremism and its consequences on regional political governance. Since the emergence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a key political player in the mid-2010s, the region has seen the far-right party … Continued
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Regional and Senate Elections in the Czech Republic, September 2024
This paper discusses the regional and senate elections that took place in the Czech Republic in September 2024. The regional elections and the first round of the senate elections were held on 20 and 21 September. The second round of Senate elections was held a week later, on 27 and 28 September. Voting in Czechia … Continued
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Regional election in Brandenburg, 22 September 2024
On September 22, 2024, the 8th Brandenburg State Parliament was elected. The election took place two weeks after the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia – also eastern German federal states. The poor election results of the three parties forming the federal government in these three elections contributed to the collapse of the ‘traffic light’ … Continued
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Regional elections in Vorarlberg, 13 October 2024
Framing the Vorarlberg province in Austrian history Vorarlberg is the westernmost Austrian province. It shares a common border with Germany in the North, Switzerland in the West and Liechtenstein in the South. The Arlberg mountain range in the East has been understood as a “natural border” towards Austria and the neighboring Tyrol Province for centuries. … Continued
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Presidential and parliamentary elections in Lithuania, May and October 2024
2024 was an election year in Lithuania. Citizens had the opportunity to vote up to five times. The elections included the first round of the presidential election on May 12, the second round on May 26, the European Parliament election on June 9, the first round of the parliamentary election on October 13, and the … Continued
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Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, 9 June and 27 October 2024
Introduction With seven consecutive parliamentary elections since April 2021, Bulgaria has set a new EU-wide record for government instability, with endemic corruption issues and the refusal of the traditional parties to convincingly engage with them eroding confidence in the political system. The ongoing political crisis poses serious threats to the rule of law in the … Continued
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Parliamentary and presidential elections in Romania, November-December 2024
Romania’s post-communist electoral history has been marked by remarkable chronological stability. Both parliamentary and presidential elections have consistently occurred at the natural conclusion of their respective electoral cycles. During this time, Romania held ten legislative and nine presidential elections. Following the volatility of the early 1990s, this pattern of regularity was further consolidated by a … Continued
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Elections in candidate countries
Parliamentary election in Serbia, 17 December 2023
Introduction In this text, we analyse the context and results of the parliamentary election held in the Republic of Serbia on December 17, 2023. This election was announced in an atmosphere of major political and social tensions caused by two mass shootings in May 2023. These events caused disruption in society, leading to mass demonstrations … Continued
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Referendum and presidential election in Moldova, October-November 2024
Moldova experienced an intense election period in the fall of 2024. A constitutional referendum was held on October 20, and the two rounds of the presidential election took place on October 20 and November 3. With a population of 2.6 million and a significant diaspora, the country voted two years after the start of the … Continued
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Short analyses
Parliamentary and presidential election in Croatia, April and December 2024
Parliamentary election in Croatia, 17 April 2024 On April 17, 2024, Croatia’s parliamentary elections were won by the coalition led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). The outgoing coalition won 34.4% of the vote (-2.8 pp) and 61 seats (-6) out of the 150 seats in the Sabor, the country’s unicameral parliament. … Continued
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Regional election in Catalonia, 12 May 2024
On 12 May 2024, 135 seats in the Catalan Parliament were up for election. For the first time since autonomy was restored in 1980, the pro-independence parties failed to secure an absolute majority. Salvador Illa’s Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC, PSOE) emerged victorious with 28.0% of the vote (+5 pp compared to 2021) and 42 … Continued
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Regional election in Madeira, 26 May 2024
In late January 2024, Madeiran regional president Miguel Albuquerque resigned from office after corruption investigations were launched against him and several of his closest political allies and business partners. Albuquerque’s center-right PSD (EPP), which has governed the region uninterruptedly since 1976, had been forced into the first coalition government in its recent history following the … Continued
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Parliamentary election in San Marino, 9 June 2024
A snap general election was held on June 9 in San Marino, Europe’s second-smallest state. Some 40,000 voters were called to the polls to elect the 60 members of the Grand and General Council, the republic’s unicameral parliament. The early election was the result of a political crisis that had began in mid-2023 when the … Continued
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Regional elections in Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, and Umbria, October-November 2024
Regional election in Liguria, 27-28 October 2024 Incumbent center-right Genova mayor Marco Bucci was nominated as the right-wing coalition’s candidate, consisting of Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, ECR), the Lega (PfE), Forza Italia (EPP) and some civic lists. The centre-left supported the candidature of former minister Andrea Orlando from the Democratic Party (PD, S&D), backed by the … Continued
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Special dossier: The 2024 European Parliament election
10 Key Lessons of the 2024 European Parliament Election
BLUE is releasing BLUE_EP, the first dataset of Europe-wide, local-level results of the 2024 and 2019 European Parliament elections. This dataset covers approximately 100,000 local administrative units and over 500 parties for the 2024 election alone. In this article, we provide an overview of the main insights offered by this unique dataset, focusing on key … Continued
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Politics In The Shadow of the Russian Threat: Understanding Elections in the Baltic Nations
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the three Baltic states have gained a new central role in debates around the Union’s security and defense. Affected by high inflation and growing security threats, they are also experiencing a period of turbulent domestic politics. Consequently, the Estonian, Lithuanian, and Latvian leaders are … Continued
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Chega: The End of The Ascent? Lessons From the European Election in Portugal
Don’t Stop Me Now may well have resonated through the grand Lisbon hotel where André Ventura gave his speech on the evening of June 9th, but his heart wasn’t in it. His hand, making a V sign, seemed out of place. His party, Chega, lost more than 700,000 voters since the early legislative election of … Continued
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The Russian “Non-Election” and the Kremlin’s European Proxies
Between March 15th and 17th, the Russian Federation held its eighth presidential election since the collapse of the Soviet Union — the fifth won by Vladimir Putin. But with large-scale repression, widespread fraud and the exclusion of any truly independent candidates, it’s hard to call this ritual organized by the ruling power for its own benefit … Continued
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In Hungary, How Péter Magyar Ambushed Orbán
June 9, 2024 marked the end of one of the most extraordinary periods in contemporary Hungarian politics. With Péter Magyar and his new Tisza party having won 29.5% of the vote in the European election, this renegade former member of the ruling elite confirmed his explosive entry into Hungarian politics, and established himself as Viktor … Continued
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Environment: The End Of The “Soft Consensus” In The Run Up To The European Election
Although scientific consensus on the climate issue is now well established, the urgency to act is rarely seriously denied, and climate policies have become part of mainstream public policy, conflicts over energy and environmental policies are on the rise. In the introduction to the new issue of Le Grand Continent, Portrait d’un monde cassé, L’Europe … Continued
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